Politics
The Economy Right Now
The latest official numbers, as of October 12, 2026, set beside January 2025. What is good, what is not, and who says so.
The argument
The economy is not one number. Here is the latest official data, all of it dated.
Stocks are at records and the economy is still growing. But hiring has slowed sharply, prices are rising faster than pay, gas and mortgages cost more than when he took office, and the Federal Reserve just raised interest rates, saying inflation “remains elevated.”
Then and now
January 2025 against the latest data
Each figure is the most recent official release as of October 12, 2026.
| January 2025 | Latest | |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | 4.0% | 4.2% (September 2026) |
| Inflation, 12 months | 3.0% | 3.4% (August 2026) |
| Regular gasoline, national | $3.11 | $4.35 (October 5, 2026) |
| 30-year mortgage rate | 6.96% | 7.40% (October 8, 2026) |
| Federal funds rate | 4.25% to 4.50% | 3.75% to 4.00%, after a September increase |
| S&P 500 | 5,997 | 7,812 (October 9, 2026) |
| National debt | $36.2 trillion | $40.3 trillion (October 8, 2026) |
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve, Treasury
1. Jobs
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, released October 2, 2026
Both nonfarm payroll employment (+29,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in September
The same report revised July from +21,000 to a loss of 10,000, and August from +162,000 to +133,000.
Read the reportAverage hourly pay was up 3.0% over the year. Prices were up 3.4% over the year to August. That means the typical paycheck is buying a little less than it did a year ago.
Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs in September and is up 72,000 since December 2025, which is a real point for the administration.
2. Prices and the Fed
Consumer prices rose 3.4% over the twelve months to August 2026. Leaving out food and energy, they rose 2.4%. Energy was up 16.3% and gasoline 27.4%, mostly because of the war with Iran. September’s figures come out October 14.
Federal Reserve, policy statement, September 16, 2026
The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent
The vote was 12 to 0. The statement explained: “Inflation remains elevated.” The Fed is now chaired by Kevin Warsh, whom the president nominated.
Read the statementThe president spent much of 2025 demanding lower interest rates. His own pick for Fed chair has now raised them.
3. How people feel
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index stood at 46.3 in early October 2026 (a preliminary reading; the final comes October 23), down from 53.6 a year earlier. People expect prices to rise 4.7% over the next year. A 30-year mortgage now costs 7.40%, up from 6.30% a year earlier.
4. Utah
Utah is doing better than the country on jobs. The state’s unemployment rate was 3.5% in August 2026, against 4.1% nationally. But Utahns pay more at the pump than most: $4.81 a gallon on October 12. See Gas Prices.
What is true on the other side
- The economy is growing. It grew at a 2.2% rate in the second quarter of 2026, and the Atlanta Fed’s running estimate for the third quarter is higher.
- Stocks are at records. The S&P 500 is up about 14% this year and about 30% since the inauguration.
- Layoffs are low. Weekly unemployment claims are under 200,000.
- Core consumer prices are up 2.4%. Most of the jump in overall inflation is energy, tied to a war in the Gulf.
The common rebuttals
“The stock market is at a record. The economy is great.”
The stock market is great for people who own a lot of stock. Most households feel the economy at the gas pump and in the mortgage rate, and both cost more than in January 2025.
“It is all the war.”
Energy is mostly the war. Hiring slowing sharply and pay trailing prices are not energy prices. And the war was a decision, not weather.
What this means
In his inaugural address he said, “We will bring prices down.” By the government’s own numbers, twenty months in, things cost more, pay buys less, and borrowing costs more.
The economy that shows up in the stock market is doing well. The one that shows up at the kitchen table is not.