Politics

Gas Prices

From $3.11 at the inauguration, down to $2.78, then to the highest October price on record. What happened, why, and what was promised.

The argument

No president controls the price of oil. That is true, and this page starts there. But presidents make promises about it, and they make decisions that move it.

Gas got cheaper for a while, then much more expensive, and the turn came the week the United States went to war with Iran. In Utah it is now more than $1.40 a gallon higher than a year ago. The promises were drill, cut energy prices in half, and refill the nation’s emergency oil reserve. The reserve has been drained instead.

1. What was promised

2. The price, month by month

The week he took office, the national average was $3.11. The lowest point of the term was $2.78 on January 12, 2026. The highest was $4.50 on May 11, 2026. On October 5, 2026, it was $4.35, up 40% from inauguration week. AAA says this is the first October on record with the national average above $4. (Prices as of EIA’s week of October 5 and AAA on October 12, 2026.)

3. Utah

The Rocky Mountain region, which includes Utah, started the term cheaper than the nation and is now more expensive. Regional gas was $2.91 the week of the inauguration and $4.42 on October 5, 2026, up 52%.

AAA’s Utah average on October 12, 2026 was $4.81 a gallon, against $3.35 a year earlier. In Salt Lake City it was $4.70.

4. Why it happened

• The war. After strikes on Iran began on February 28, 2026, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. The EIA estimates that Gulf oil production shut in by the war peaked at 10.9 million barrels a day in May. Brent crude, the world benchmark, averaged $117 a barrel in April and $114 in September.
• Refining. The gap between crude and wholesale gasoline has run about a dollar a gallon wider than in 2025 since May.
• Not a lack of drilling. U.S. crude production set a record of 13.7 million barrels a day in 2025 and is forecast at 13.9 million for 2026. Drilling was not the main driver. The war and tight refining were.

5. The emergency reserve

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the oil the country keeps for emergencies. He promised to fill it “right to the top.” It held 411 million barrels at the end of 2025 and 283 million on September 30, 2026, according to the Department of Energy. A war is what the reserve is for, so using it was reasonable. The promise was the opposite.

6. Things he said about gas prices

What is true on the other side

• Presidents do not set oil prices. Economists broadly say that world crude markets, not the White House, drive the price at the pump.
• Gas really was cheaper in late 2025 and early 2026, about 10% below inauguration week at the one-year mark.
• It is still below AAA’s 2022 record of $5.02, set June 14, 2022.
• U.S. production is at a record, which has kept the shock smaller than it would otherwise have been.

The common rebuttals

“It is the war, not him.”

The strikes were a decision of his administration, and the price rise followed within days. The March 2025 U.S. intelligence threat assessment had said Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. Whatever the merits of the war, higher gas prices are one of its costs.

“Biden had $5 gas.”

In June 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, yes. That is the same lesson: wars move oil. It does not make a promise to cut energy prices in half into a kept promise.

What this means

Drilling was never what set the price. The decision that moved it most was a war, and that decision was made in his administration.